Exploring the Export Scenario of Indian Walnuts
Published by: Admin
Authors: Surbhi Bansal, Lovepreet Singh and Namami Gohain
Abstract
This study assesses the progress, production dynamics, and shifting export directions of Indian walnuts from 2010–11 to 2023–24 using secondary data from APEDA and the National Horticultural Board. Analytical tools including the Cuddy-Della Valle Index, log-lin regression models, and first-order Gauss-Markov Chain Approach were utilized to analyze growth trends, measure trade instability, and forecast market shares up to 2026–27. The findings revealed that while Jammu and Kashmir maintains a domestic production monopoly of 92%, India accounts for less than 1% of global output. Domestically, walnut exports collapsed from 3,292 metric tonnes in 2015–16 to 717.67 metric tonnes in 2022–23, driven by traditional tree diseases and stiff competition from Californian, Chilean, and Chinese imports. Markov analysis identifies the UAE and UK as the most consistent and dependable markets, with the UAE retaining a high export share of 64.18%, whereas Germany, France, and the USA have become highly unstable destinations. Projections up to 2026–27 suggests that France and UAE will face a decline in market share, while the UK is anticipated to grow to 19.01%. To gain a competitive edge and stabilize exports, the government must prioritize setting up new plantations featuring high-yielding, disease-resistant varieties with shorter gestation periods. Furthermore, policy interventions must focus on improving international quality standards through value-added shelled kernels, providing agricultural extension support to train farmers in modern harvesting, and offering credit and investment subsidies to support private trade players.