Dynamics of Growth and Instability in Major Seed Spices of Rajasthan
Published by: Admin
Authors: Alvin George Sebastian, Baljinder Kaur Sidana, Laishram Priscilla and Arjinder Kaur
Abstract
The present study examines growth and instability in the area, production, and productivity of major seed spices in Rajasthan over a period of three decades, from 1994-95 to 2024-25. For analytical purposes, the study period was divided into three phases: pre-NHM (1994-95 to 2004-05), NHM (2005-06 to 2015-16), and post-NHM (2016-17 to 2024-25), to assess changes in performance across policy regimes associated with the National Horticulture Mission (NHM). Compound annual growth rates were estimated using a log-linear regression model, while instability was measured using the Cuddy-Della Valle Index. The results indicate a significant expansion in area under seed spice cultivation across crops during the NHM period, with annual growth of 14.36 per cent for cumin, 22.08 per cent for fennel, and 11.73 per cent for fenugreek. Coriander recorded a decline in area and production during the Post-NHM period, with negative growth rates of 6.75 per cent and 4.76 per cent, respectively, indicating a gradual decline in Rajasthan’s traditional dominance in coriander cultivation during recent years. Productivity growth was moderate, suggesting scope for further technical improvements and more efficient use of inputs. Instability analysis revealed that production instability remained higher than area and productivity instability across most crops. Fennel recorded the highest production instability (92.9%), whereas fenugreek exhibited comparatively stable productivity with an instability index of 11 per cent during the overall study period. The findings highlight the need for productivity-oriented interventions, climate-resilient technologies, and improved extension support to ensure sustainable growth and stability in Rajasthan’s seed spice sector.