Sectoral Transformation of Punjab’s Economy Before and After COVID-19: Evidence from GSVA Estimates
Published by: Admin
Authors: Anuvesh Rikhi and Sanjeev Kumar
Abstract
The present study examined the sectoral growth, structural transformation, and post-pandemic recovery patterns in Punjab’s economy before and after COVID-19. The results of the study revealed that the tertiary sector was the fastest-growing sector in Punjab, both before and after COVID-19, recording a CAGR of 7.05 and 8.05 per cent, respectively, followed by the secondary sector. In contrast, the primary sector showed comparatively slower growth, with its CAGR declining from 2.27 per cent during the pre-COVID period to 1.45 per cent during the post-COVID period. The share of the primary sector in GSVA declined from 27.17 per cent during the pre-COVID period to 22.22 per cent during the post-COVID period, while the shares of the secondary and tertiary sectors increased to 27.02 and 50.76 per cent, respectively. The sectoral growth performance during the pandemic year varied considerably, with the tertiary sector recording the sharpest contraction in 2020-21. The recovery analysis showed that all sectors surpassed their pre-pandemic levels by 2024-25, although the pace of recovery was substantially higher in the secondary and tertiary sectors. The tertiary sector contributed 61.28 per cent of the total increase in GSVA during the study period, highlighting its dominant role in Punjab’s economic growth. The study emphasized the need for policies that promote industrial diversification, service sector expansion, and agricultural modernization to ensure balanced and sustainable economic development in the state.